My Small Thoughts

Clarity.. :9

We all make choices. The hard thing is to live with them, and there ain’t nobody that can help you with that.- The old man, The Words.

That quote is really makes me wonder: decision, is that hard? Then I remember one of course that I’ve studied in my university session, it’s called: Decision making under uncertainty, which really match with my situation now.

The Introduction

  • In many decisions, consequences of take action can’t be predicted with certainty
  • Uncertainty whether it will be accepted by our target
  • Uncertainty about the return that we’ll get
  • In many situations, the decision is not made repeatedly, and the DM may only have one opportunity to choose the best course of actions. If things go wrong, then there will be no chance of recovering losses in future repetitions of the decision. In this circumtances, some people might prefer the least risky course of action. (of course I’m a risk seeker).

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Most of decision maker who already has asset in Y tend to be averse to take a risk. On the contrary the most of decision maker who has asset only in X will tend to take a risk.

Method:

  • that assumes the DM is unable, or unwilling, to estimate probabilities for the outcomes;
  • assuming that probabilities can be assessed

The conflict and result:

Let’s say I have dilemmas in choosing the best action for my future career and have only 2 options.

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and here’s the result.

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(Utility value reflects the probability of equality)

Although there’s insignificant difference between them, I still choose the best one because if there’s only a small probability of taking any action or opportunity that will make me better , its my time to take that risk. Now back to the first question: Decision, is that hard?  And the answer is no, if you really know the value, risk, and the impact that will come to you just go with that. Then if sometimes you feel that the decision that you make seems complicated, don’t ever looking back and make the useless comparison with your past, it just make you tired and you’ll going anywhere. Life is absolutely a trade off, there’s always need a big sacrifice if we want our big goals come true. Remember everything always has it times to happen. Just enjoy every part of your life with the highest positivity which make it simpler:)

Happy Saturday!! – Aghnia Amalia Septiany

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